Island records lowest birth rate in over a century, research shows

New data says levels are the lowest since 1918

New research by population analyst and Member of the Legislative Council Paul Craine has revealed that the Isle of Man recorded its lowest number of births in more than 100 years in 2024, raising questions over the Island’s long-term demographic outlook.

Just 574 births were registered last year - the lowest figure since 1918.

At the same time, 925 deaths were recorded, the highest in 25 years.

The widening gap between births and deaths highlights what Mr Craine describes as an ‘ongoing period of natural population decline’.

The data shows that births have fallen 43.9 percent since 2010, when over 1,000 children were born on the Island.

Mr Craine says this decline is already impacting school enrolment numbers, with year one currently the smallest year group, and projections suggesting further decreases in future student intakes.

“The small number of children today is already visible as a narrowing at the base of the Island’s population profile - and this will remain visible for decades,” he explains.

Mr Craine warns that over the coming years, there will be fewer young adults entering the workforce, which could reduce the number of people contributing to taxation and national insurance.

He notes that while an ageing population accounts for a slight increase in deaths, it is the collapse in births that is driving the growing imbalance.  The Island would need to attract more than 350 additional net migrants per year just to maintain its current population level, he suggests.

Mr Craine’s research explores various global and local factors that may be contributing to the decline, including economic uncertainty, housing costs, and societal shifts.

He writes that no country he has studied appears to have experienced such a sharp drop in births in so short a time as the Isle of Man, although a similar pattern has been observed in Jersey.

Despite the challenges, there are signs of hope.  The Island’s total population, according to the latest tax-based estimate, stands at just over 84,520 - its highest ever.

School numbers in some year groups have also risen slightly due to inward migration, particularly of working-age families.

The Isle of Man Government has not adopted a policy aimed at increasing the birth rate, but Mr Craine acknowledges recent efforts to support young families, such as increases to maternity allowance, child benefit reform, and plans for shared parental leave.

Concluding, he believes addressing the Island’s demographic challenges will require not only government action but a broader cultural shift that welcomes and supports young families at all levels of society.

Mr Craine's research paper can be read in full below.